People jostle to buy subsidised flour and egg batter of wheat flour from a sale point in Quetta, Pakistan, on January 12. For weeks now, the price of wheat flour in Pakistan has been hovering at uncomfortably high levels.

Roti and naan are among the staple foods of the country, and the steep hike in the cost of flour has pinched people hard. Mirpur Khas in Sindh, a stampede at one such distribution spot claimed the life of a 35-year-old man on January 7. While the central and provincial governments have blamed each other for the crisis, experts say it has been caused by long-standing deficiencies exacerbated by the Russia Ukraine war, the devastating floods of 2022, and by the smuggling of wheat to Afghanistan. One wheat consignment from Russia has now reached Pakistan, and some relief is expected in the weeks to come. How bad is the flour price crisis? Punjab and Sindh, the two wheat-producing states, while the prices have been higher in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.

The same article said that one naan is selling for PKR 30 while one roti is going for PKR 25 in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Pakistan imports wheat to meet its consumption needs, a lot of which comes from Russia and Ukraine. Wheat prices increased largely in Sindh and Balochistan, which lost significant reserves due to the floods. The smuggling of wheat to Afghanistan is also a factor, which results in shortage locally, pushing prices higher. However, sufficient wheat stocks do exist in government warehouses. The mills then provide the flour to retail markets. The two major wheat-producing states are Punjab and Sindh.

According to the US Department of Agriculture, Punjab contributes 77 per cent of Pakistan’s wheat output, Sindh 15 per cent, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 5 per cent, while Balochistan produces 3. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa shares a highly porous border with Afghanistan, and a lot of wheat is smuggled across it to fetch lucrative prices in the neighbouring country. Sindh suffered heavily in the floods, which impacted its kharif crop. Punjab and Sindh did not release wheat to mills on time. Others say that mill owners hoarded stocks, causing prices to climb, and the government did not act against them because many influential politicians come from rural-agrarian backgrounds. Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa both have Khan sahab’s government.

Giving wheat to mills is the provincial government’s responsibility. A lot of the claims of shortage are just propaganda meant to embarrass the central government. Pakistan has enough wheat stock, but adequate attention has not been given to its procurement, distribution to mills, and prevention of hoarding. This year, the Pakistan government has announced it will import 2.

6 million metric tonnes of wheat. 3 million metric tonnes have arrived, raising hopes of the prices cooling down. However, this import bill is a tight squeeze on a country staring at critically low foreign reserves. 5 billion, barely enough for three months of imports.

In India, Punjab and Haryana are considered the bread baskets. Qalb-e-Abbas, a farmer based in Punjab’s Jhang district, told The Indian Express. However, in Pakistan, the per acre yield of wheat is not much. There are several reasons for this. There have been no technological advancements in agriculture over the years, no high-yielding breeds developed. Unlike wheat, rice is among the major exports of Pakistan. This year, with flour shortage, the demand for rice has gone up domestically.