Concise, actionable scenarios and predictions from top regional turkey cook time. Intimate in-person access to policy and business VIPs. Data-driven analysis of latest market trends. Turkey’s president indicates elections will be held on May 14, a symbolic date in the country’s multiparty democracy and a month earlier than expected.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks during a group meeting at the Turkish Grand National Assembly in Ankara on Jan. While the country’s dual polls were formally scheduled for June 18, Ankara’s political and diplomatic circles have been hedging bets on early election dates, weighing in various components of the electoral equation, such as Turks’ economic woes, Erdogan’s newly found international spotlight, the new electoral laws and other factors that would influence electoral turnout, including the Eid break in June. Erdogan signaled the date in his parliamentary speech Wednesday, which resembled a campaign kickoff. Enough, the people will have their say’ and emerged victorious at the ballot box,” Erdogan told the AKP group in parliament. The Turkish people will again put the coup supporters in their place, 73 years after the one-party era ended.

A decade after his election, he and his top ministers ended up on the gallows for treason in modern Turkey’s first military coup. Erdogan, deposed and briefly jailed when he was mayor of Istanbul in the 1990s, often compares himself to Menderes, reusing buzzwords and concepts the Democrat Party used, such as bringing prosperity to the devout rural people, respect for the religious values of the country and empowering people. Though Erdogan and his allies insisted throughout last year that elections would take place in June as scheduled, few believed him since this meant that Erdogan could not run a third time as president without a blatant violation of the constitution. But the early polls do not skirt the constitutional debate on Erdogan’s rerun, which was rekindled in the media and parliament mere minutes after his announcement of a date.

To call for snap polls, however, the parliament needs a three-fifths majority, i. 360 votes in the 600-strong legislature. So does his party and the Supreme Electoral Board. The president already presented himself months ago. Turkey’s centennial celebrations all center around the person of Erdogan to the minutest detail. Barcin Yinanc, a foreign policy expert, said. This automatically leads to analyzing Turkey’s foreign policy in the first half of the year through the lens of the coming elections.

On the economic front, which is Erdogan’s and the AKP’s Achilles’ heel, all critical decisions that bring a band-aid to Turks who are choked under high inflation are made by the president rather than the minister responsible. It is now up to the opposition to name who will be the opposition’s presidential candidate. Iyi Party, conservative Felicity Party and two off-shoots of the AKP — has so far refrained from naming a presidential candidate. The opposition has ducked questions on the candidate, saying their focus is on their joint program.